I don’t have the time to do a detailed post for the Oscars this year, but it wouldn’t feel right without throwing some predictions out there. Here are my predictions (ie, guesses) on how I think each category will turn out, and which nominees I feel are most deserving.
Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
Will win: This is a really tough one to pick as it has been such a tight race. It will go down to The Revenant, Spotlight and The Big Short, and my guess is that Spotlight will edge out the others to take home the biggest prize.
Should win: If it were up to me I’d go with either The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road. In any case it’s been a terrific year for cinema and I think all of the Best Picture nominees — with the exception of Brooklyn — are all deserving.
Nominees: Adam McKay (The Big Short), George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant), Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Will win: Another tough one. Usually Best Director also gets Best Film, though it’s not as set in stone as it used to be. I initially went with McCarthy, but after some thought I’ve decided to pick Iñárritu.
Should win: Iñárritu or Miller are the most deserving in my opinion.
Nominees: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (The Martian), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Will win: Leo. It’s his time.
Should win: There’s been some backlash against Leo lately but I still think he delivered an Oscar-worthy performance. The Academy has given away awards for far less relevant reasons, so there’s no reason why he shouldn’t get it this time.
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Will win: Brie Larson. She’s been the favourite for a while, though Charlotte Rampling is a dark horse.
Should win: Brie Larson or Charlotte Rampling. Both magnificent performances. I thought Larson’s was more emotionally affecting, though that’s partly due to the subject matter.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Will win: Sylvester Stallone. All the momentum is on his side, and if he misses out it will be a bit like when Michael Keaton missed out on Best Actor last year.
Should win: Mark Rylance. I’ve said it since I watched Bridge of Spies. He was absolutely brilliant in that film.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Rooney Mara (Carol), Rachel McAdams (Spotlight), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Will win: Alicia Vikander. The least suspenseful award. She appears to have it in the bag.
Should win: Vikander was great in The Danish Girl, but let’s face it, she was the lead actress, not a supporting actress. And I actually think she was better in Ex Machina. The deserving winner here is really Rooney Mara, though she should have been in the Best Actress category too.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton
Will win: Spotlight. Would be surprised if someone else won — though maybe the voters get swayed by all the OscarsSoWhite# backlash and end up voting for Compton.
Should win: Ex Machina. The most creative and intelligent script of the year,
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room
Will win: The Big Short.
Should win: Hard one to pick. I probably would go with The Martian.
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road. I feel like this film will take out at least one of the technical awards.
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Martian
Nominees: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant
Will win: Carol. Kind of like a consolation prize for missing out on being nominated for Best Picture.
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road. I’m not that into costumes from period pieces. At least I can remember the costumes in Fury Road.
Make-up & Hairstyling
Nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared, The Revenant
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road. Immortan Joe!
Nominees: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario
Will win: The Revenant.
Should win: The Revenant or Sicario.
Nominees: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will win: The Revenant. Just because.
Should win: The Big Short. Loved the edits in this.
Nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will win: The Revenant.
Should win: Sicario.
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will win: The Martian. It has to win something.
Should win: I really don’t know what this award is all about, to be honest.
Nominees: Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I mean, it’s Star Wars.
Should win: The Revenant. Absolutely seamless stuff. Ex Machina is probably equally deserving considering the budget.
Nominees: Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie, When Marnie Was There
Will win: Inside Out. This shouldn’t be controversial.
Should win: I haven’t seen Anomalisa (which is apparently really good), so on that basis I have to go with Inside Out.
Nominees: Bear Story, Prologue, Sanjay’s Super Team, We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, World of Tomorrow
Will win: Sanjay’s Super Team. Pure speculation.
Should win: No idea.
Nominees: Amy, Cartel Land, The Look of Silence, What Happened Miss Simone?, Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Will win: Amy, though Cartel Land has a strong chance.
Should win: Amy. One of the best docos I’ve seen in years.
Nominees: Body Team 12, Chau Beyond the Lines, Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, The Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Last Day of Freedom
Will win: The Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness. Another wild guess.
Should win: No idea whatsoever.
Live Action Short
Nominees: Ave Maria, Day One, Everything Will Be Okay, Shok, Stutterer
Will win: Day One.
Should win: No idea.
Best Foreign Film
Nominees: Embrace of the Serpent, Mustang, Son of Saul, Theeb, A War
Will win: Son of Saul, it’s the one everyone’s talking about.
Should win: No idea.
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will win: Probably Star Wars.
Should win: Probably either Star Wars or Carol.
Nominees: Earned It (Fifty Shades of Grey), Manta Ray (Racing Extinction), Simple Song #3 (Youth), Writing’s on the Wall (Spectre), Til It Happens To You (Hunting Ground)
Will win: Til It Happens To You. Lady Gaga is performing this song immediately before this award is announced, and she’s being introduced by US Vice President Joe Biden. So it’s hard to imagine this song not winning.
Should win: No idea