Tag Archives: Best Actor

Oscar Predictions 2017

It’s my favourite time of the year again: Oscar time!

I have just finished reviewing all nine Best Picture nominees for 2017, so it’s time to roll out some predictions. As expected, La La Land leads the way with 14 nominations and is likely to be the big winner of the night, including Best Picture, Best Director for Damien Chazelle and Best Actress for Emma Stone. That said, things aren’t exactly as cut and dried now as they were probably a month or two ago, as there has been significant backlash against La La Land for the usual stupid political reasons and because people just like to criticise. The same thing goes for the Best Actor category, which most pundits believed was a lock for Casey Affleck until unproven sexual harassment allegations from years ago came back to haunt him. I guess we’ll see.

Without further ado, here are my guesses for who will win tomorrow and who should.

Best Picture

Nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

Will win: La La Land

Despite the backlash, I think La La Land has enough goodwill left to hold off late charges from Moonlight and Hidden Figures. Knowing the way Hollywood is and the demographic of Academy voters, it will be a bit of a shock if either movie with predominantly black actors ends up topping one with predominantly white actors. Just sayin’.

Should win: La La Land

For the first time in forever, my feeling is that the movie that will most likely win Best Picture at the Oscars is the most deserving one. I never thought it was possible, but I absolutely adored La La Land and think it deserves all the accolades it has been getting. Sure, the singing and dancing is not at Broadway level and the story is seemingly generic, but this film just gave me a magical feeling I seldom experience. By the way, if not for La La Land, my vote would have gone to Arrival.

Best Director

Nominees: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Will win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Chazelle was tipped as a future heavyweight after Whiplash, and now he will be crowned the top director of 2017. Well-deserved too. Jenkins has an outside chance, but it will be a stunner if Chazelle doesn’t take home the gong.

Should win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

All great directors and great films, but Chazelle pulled off one of the most difficult genres (musical) with spectacular results and got the best performances of out of his leads.

Best Actor

Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)

Will win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

I think Affleck, unlike Nate Parker (Birth of a Nation), will escape from his scandal with the acting Oscar his older brother Ben will never get. Affleck’s nuanced performance in Manchester by the Sea was a stab in the heart, and he made audiences shed tears without shedding tears himself on screen, a true testament to his performance

Should win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

See above, but I wouldn’t mind if Denzel took home the award either. I actually wished Garfield could have gotten nominated for Silence instead, and I think he would have been a deserving winner for that too.

Best Actress

Nominees: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Will win: Emma Stone (La La Land)

The stars are aligned this year for Emma Stone, who should sing, dance and act her way to her first Oscar. She is facing tough competition, with Huppert being touted as a serious contender rather than a dark horse. And of course, you can never count out Meryl Streep.

Should win: Emma Stone (La La Land)

Unfortunately, Stone and Portman’s performances are the only ones I’ve seen so far. Portman was good Jackie, but I think Stone blows her out of the water here.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Will win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

A small role that only lasts the first third of the film, but Ali is the odds on favourite to win the award. He was very, very good in limited screen time.

Should win: Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

This is quite a weird category in that there is no clear standout. As I said above, Ali is great in the role, but he’s not in the film much. Jeff Bridges delivers a performance I feel like I’ve seen a few times already (True Grit?), and Dev Patel really should be in the Best Actor category for Lion, while I personally think Aaron Taylor-Johnson would have been a better pick than Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals. So that leaves by default Lucas Hedges, who kind of came out of nowhere to deliver a very powerful performance that boosted Casey Affleck’s.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Will win: Viola Davis (Fences)

Easiest pick of the acting categories. Viola Davis was dynamite in Fences, and though she should have been in the Best Actress category, there’s no denying that she’s absolutely deserving of an Oscar.

Should win: Viola Davis (Fences)

All great performances, but Davis’s stands out head and shoulders above the rest. She gave me the chills.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, 20th Century Women

Will win: La La Land

This is La La’s night, so I’m assuming the big awards are going to all go its way.

Should win: Hell or High Water

I loved Hell or High Water, and the dialogue is huge part of it. The film just felt authentic and managed to flesh out the characters really well.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Moonlight

Will win: Moonlight

Moonlight is such a lauded film, one which many think is the best film of the year, and so it should take home at least a few awards in which La La Land has not been nominated.

Should win: Arrival

Have you seen Arrival? Amazing story, insanely good adaptation consider the difficulty of the material.

Best Animated Film

Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, Zootopia

Will win: Zootopia

Haven’t seen it yet but the bookmakers seem to have this one ahead.

Should win: Moana

I’ve seen Kubo and Moana, and both are great animated films in their own right. If I were forced to choose, however, I’d go with Moana. Though it doesn’t have the same stunning stop-motion animation, I felt the story and characters were stronger. And the songs are catchy!

Visual Effects

Nominees: Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, Kubo and the Two Strings, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Will win: Jungle Book

All fantastic effects this year, with Doctor Strange and The Jungle Book vying for the award. I would be very annoyed in The Jungle Book didn’t win. This was the first time shot entirely in a studio that made me believe everything was real, down to the talking animals.

Should win: Jungle Book

Every nominee had great special effects, but only The Jungle Book‘s was revolutionary.

Cinematography

Nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight, Silence

Will win: Arrival

Tempted to go with La La again but I’m guessing that it can’t win everything it’s nominated for. If there’s one category it’s in danger of missing out on, this could be it. Arrival‘s cinematography is breathtakingly good too, and I hope it at least takes home something.

Should win: Silence

Silence should have been nominated for way more categories, including Best Picture, so it’s a travesty that it only has this one nomination to show for it. But this is not a pity vote from me because the cinematography in this movie is absolutely beautiful.

Costume Design

Nominees: Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, La La Land

Will win: La La Land

No comment.

Should win: Jackie

Recreating all the classic pieces must have been a lot of work.

Editing

Nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight

Will win: Moonlight

Another one of those categories where La La might not reign supreme. Just a hunch.

Should win: Hacksaw Ridge

With all those flying limbs and exploding skulls it must have been a difficult task editing this film.

Make-up and Hair

Nominees: A Man Called Ove, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad

Will win: Star Trek Beyond

I just can’t imagine Suicide Squad winning anything, and A Man Called Ove might not have been seen by enough voters?

Should win: Star Trek Beyond

I just can’t imagine Suicide Squad winning anything

Best Original Score

Nominees: Jackie, La La Land Lion Moonlight Passengers

Will win: La La Land

The best musical absolutely has to win best music right? In all seriousness, I loved the music in this movie and still listen to it regularly.

Should win: La La Land

No brainer.

Best Original Song

Nominees:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls
“City Of Stars” from La La Land
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

Will win: “City Of Stars” from La La Land

Actually think “Audition” is the better song, but the title “City of Stars” is probably enough to sway the voters. Just wonder if the two songs will end up splitting the votes and another film will end up coming out on top.

Should win: “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

I actually like some of the other songs in La La Land more, but of the songs nominated, I liked “How Far I’ll Go” the most.

Production Design

Nominees: Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar! La La Land, Passengers

Will win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

JK Rowling should get some love. Fantastic Beasts does have a lot of nice looking sets.

Should win: Arrival

Have you seen Arrival? Those alien ships were mind-blowing. Actually, Passengers wasn’t all that bad either, it’s just that the film was not very well received, so I don’t expect much love from voters.

Sound Editing

Nominees: Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Sully

Will win: Arrival

Have you seeeeeen Arrival?

Should win: Arrival

Have you seeeeeeeeeen Arrival? Those alien ship sounds! They should have dubbed Amy Adams’ Mandarin though.

Sound Mixing

Nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Should win: Hacksaw Ridge

Loads of bombs and explosions is all I can remember. Must have been exhausting work,

Will win: Hacksaw Ridge

Yada yada yada.

Note: The rest of the categories are going to be mostly guesses, and I’m assuming no one really cares about them (sorry), so for the sake of brevity it’s just going to be the nominees plus my pick in bold.

Documentary Feature

Fire at Sea, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, 13th

The only one I’ve seen, and given this is OJ’s year, so to speak, my guess is that it will win. The bigger question is: Can a doco with 4 parts and clocking in at around 7 hours be a “film”?

Documentary Short

Extremis, 4.1 Miles, Joe’s Violin, Watani: My Homeland, The White Helmets

Pure speculation.

Foreign Language Film

Land of MineA Man Called Ove, The Salesman, Tanna, Toni Erdmann

Land of Mine has gotten a bit of buzz around here, so I’m sticking with it.

Short Film (Live Action)

Ennemis Intérieurs, La Femme et le TGV, Silent Nights, Sing Timecode

Like I would have a clue.

Short Film (Animated)

Blind Vaysha, Borrowed Time, Pear, Cider and Cigarettes, Pearl Piper

Sounds like a winning title.

Last Minute 2015 Oscar Predictions

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Crap. Can’t believe the Oscars are going to be on in less than 10 hours. Fortunately, I’ve now seen all the Best Picture nominees and almost all of the films in the major categories. So without further ado, here’s who I think will win and who I think should win. By the way, I have not been following the buzz and betting odds.

Best Picture:
Nominees: American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
Prediction: Birdman
Should win: Boyhood

Best Actor:
Nominees: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Prediction: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Should win: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

Best Actress:
Nominees: Marion Cottilard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Prediction: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Should win: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Prediction: JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Should win: JK Simmons (Whiplash)

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Kiera Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Prediction: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Should win: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Best Director
Nominees: 
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
Prediction: 
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Birdman)
Should win: 
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler
Prediction:
Birdman
Should win:
 Boyhood

Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash 
Prediction:
Whiplash
Should win:
The Imitation Game

Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Prediction:
Big Hero 6
Should win: Big Hero 6

Cinematography
Nominees:
Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ida Mr Turner, Unbroken
Prediction:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: 
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Costume Design
Nominees:
The Grand Budapest Hotel, Inherent Vice, Into the Woods, Maleficent, Mr Turner
Prediction:
Into the Woods
Should win: 
Maleficent

Documentary Feature
Nominees: CitizenFour, Finding Vivian Maier, Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth, Virunga
Prediction: CitizenFour
Should win: Finding Vivian Maier

Documentary Short
Nominees:
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, Joanna, Our Curse, The Reaper, White Earth
Prediction:
White Earth
Should win:
No idea

Editing
Nominees:
American Sniper, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Whiplash
Prediction: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Boyhood

Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Ida, Leviathan, Tangerines, Timbuktu, Wild Tales
Prediction:
Leviathan
Should win:
No idea

Makeup and Hair
Nominees:
Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Guardians of the Galaxy
Prediction: 
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: 
Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Original Score
Nominees:
The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Mr Turner, The Theory of Everything
Prediction:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win:
The Theory of Everything

Best Original Song
Nominees:
Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie), Glory (Selma), Grateful (Beyond the Lights), I’m Not Gonna MIss You (Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me), Lost Stars (Begin Again)
Prediction:
Glory (Sela)
Should win: 
Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie)

Production Design
Nominees: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Mr Turner
Prediction: 
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win:
Interstellar

Sound Editing
Nominees:
America Sniper, Birdman, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Interstellar, Unbroken
Prediction:
American Sniper
Should win:
Interstellar

Sound Mixing
Nominees:
American Sniper, Birdman, Interstellar, Unbroken, Whiplash
Prediction:
Whiplash
Should win:
Whiplash

Visual Effects
Nominees:
Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, Interstellar, X-Men: Days of Future Past
Prediction:
Interstellar
Should win:
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Short Film (Animated)
Nominees:
The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and My Moulton, A Single Life
Prediction:
The Dam Keeper
Should win:
No idea

Short Film (Live Action)
Nominees:
Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvaneh, The Phone Call
Prediction:
Aya
Should win:
No idea

2014 Oscar Predictions: Who Should Win and Who Will

the-oscars-logo

With just a handful of days before the 86th Academy Awards, and having just completed my sweep of the Best Picture nominees, it’s time for my annual Oscar predictions!

This has been a fantastic year in cinema — much better than the lackluster year before — with some very deserving nominees that could have crushed last year’s field. Again, true stories have paved the way, with six of the nine Best Picture nominees all supposedly based on or inspired by real events. And to make things more exciting, it’s quite an open field this year, with several intriguing possibilities in all the major categories.

So, without further ado, these are my picks.

Best Picture: (click on the film for my review)

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wold of Wall Street

Comments: An impressive field this year where I awarded at least 4.5 stars to six of the nine films and at least four stars to all but one. There is no clear cut favourite, with early frontrunner  American Hustle seemingly falling behind Golden Globe winner 12 Years a Slave. The critically acclaimed Gravity also lurks, though at the moment it appears the Best Picture award is down to a two-horse race. I love a bit of suspense.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave — ticks the right boxes for a Best Picture winner and it appears there’s too much momentum to slow it down now.
Dark horse: American Hustle — the early favourite could have grabbed enough votes before voting closed.
Should win: Gravity — a transcendent movie experience that will become the most memorable film of the lot years down the track.

BestPictureOscars2014

Best Actor

Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Comments: A real open race this year, with the buzz surrounding Chiwetel Ejiofor’s amazing performance in 12 Years a Slave pushing him slightly ahead at this stage. But losing weight for a role is always a winner’s signpost, and Matthew McConaughey sure lost a lot of weight for Dallas Buyers Club, so he could certainly also take home the award. Bruce Dern, as the oldie, is the sentimental favourite as the insufferable father in Nebraska, while Leo and Batman (no, not Ben Affleck) are also still in it with a chance. Anyone could win this one.

Prediction: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Dark horse: Matthew McConaughey
Should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor — in a year of sensational performances, I simply have to go with the one I believe is the best of the lot, by a hair or two. I do think Leo’s performance in The Wolf of Wall Street would have been deserving in almost any other year, and I was genuinely moved and impressed by Bruce Dern in Nebraska. I’d be happy if any of those three won it.

chiewtel

Best Actress:

Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Comments: What a crazy field this year, with all former winners except for Amy Adams, who is no slouch with five career nominations. The only one I haven’t seen out of the five is Meryl in August: Osage County (I intend to see it soon), but we pretty much know by now what we’re going to get with her every time. Another open race, with the award reportedly being “Cate Blanchett’s to lose” until the resurfacing of the Woody Allen scandal took the shine off her recent wins at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. Right now I’d say it’s a two-horse race between Blanchett and Adams; a three-horse race if you consider the fact that you can never count out Meryl.

Prediction: Amy Adams — I’m going for the upset! Seriously, it’s a toss up between Adams and Blanchett, but I think the Woody Allen thing plus Amy being the only winless nominee could finally get her over the line this time. If we’re talking about the best performance it’ll probably be Meryl every time, but these awards are so political that it’s hard to predict what will happen.
Dark horse: Cate Blanchett — really the favourite as opposed to the dark horse.
Should win: Cate Blanchett

amy-adams-american-hustle-43

Best Supporting Actor:

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Comments: The hardest to pick of the lot, in my opinion, and I’ve seen all of the films! Newcomer Barkhad Abdi has the surprise element going for him but it’s hard to imagine voters picking him over his more famous counterparts. The only guy I can’t see winning is Jonah Hill, because let’s face it, the world as we know it would end if Jonah Hill becomes an Oscar winner. On the other hand, Cooper and Fassbender’s statuses as sex symbols could also cost them with voters, so I’m inclined to go with…

Prediction: Jared Leto — historically speaking, people who undergo dramatic physical transformations have a good chance of winning. Nicole Kidman (nose) in The Hours, Halle Berry (plain) in Monster’s Ball, Charlize Theron (fat and uglified) in Monster are just some examples, but they were all Best Actress winners. I’m pretty much picking Leto, who plays a transsexual AIDS sufferer, by default, however, as I can find potential reasons for not choosing the other guys.
Dark horse: Barkhad Abdi — he’s pretty much the Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) this year, a feel good story about a guy with no acting experience. If voters can’t decide among the other nominees he could come out ahead.
Should win: Michael Fassbender — tough choice but I thought he was incredible in such a difficult role in 12 Years a Slave.

jared leto

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

Comments: Another relatively open field with the tortured Lupita Nyong’o from 12 Years a Slave regarded as the slight favourite ahead of Jennifer Lawrence. But I think Sally Hawkins was fantastic in Blue Jasmine and I fell in love with June Squibb after seeing Nebraska, so I don’t think it’s necessarily a foregone conclusion that it’s a two-horse race.

Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o — I’d say Jennifer Lawrence would have won it had she not already picked up Best Actress last year for Silver Linings Playbook.
Dark horse: Jennifer Lawrence — but everyone loves her so much that she might just win it anyway.
Should win: June Squibb — she stole every scene she was in in Nebraska and delivered the biggest laughs in one of the funniest films of the year.

lupita-12-years-a-slave

Best Director:

David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Steve McQueen (Steve McQueen)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Comments: A toss up between Steve McQueen, who could become the first ever black director to win the award, and Alfonso Cuarón, whose incredible vision gave us the masterpiece Gravity.

Prediction: Steve McQueen — remember the year when Denzel didn’t deserve it but won for Training Day anyway because it was all about the first black winner for Best Actor? I have a feeling history is about to repeat itself, except McQueen actually deserves it.
Dark horse: Alfonso Cuarón — it’s hard to imagine a film as great as Gravity not getting anything other than the technical awards.
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón — I know I said McQueen deserves to win, but in my opinion Cuarón deserves it more for sticking to his guns despite pressure from producers and delivering one of the most amazing movie experiences of the last decade. Those trademark long, seemingly uncut sequences throughout the film were magical.

Best Original Screenplay:

American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

Comments: A no-brainer that the winner should be the incredible Her, which would have probably been a piece of crap but for the script by Spike Jonze. Don’t get me wrong, all the original screenplays are great, but Her is just on another level.

Prediction: Spike Jonze (Her) — it’s his to lose.
Dark horse: Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine) — maybe some people out there still like Woody.
Should win: Spike Jonze (Her)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

Comments: Another difficult choice to make, but it’s hard to see voters passing on the wonderful adaptation of the book of the same name by John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave. Usually the screenplay and Best Picture go hand in hand, so it’s hard to see this one going to anyone else.

Prediction: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Dark horse: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight) — everyone loves these guys.
Should win: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight) — after three brilliant films, I think some recognition should go to Linklater, Delpy and Hawke. After all, the trilogy is mainly all talking, and yet after nearly 300 minutes of it we still can’t get enough of these brutally honest and lovable characters.

OK, so that takes care of the major categories. As for the rest of the nominees, I will just list them and highlight the predicted winner in bold, then add my thoughts on the category.

Visual EffectsGravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness
Comments: As impressive as the effects were in all the nominees, this one is a no brainer and a near lock.

Animated FeatureThe Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest and Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Comments: I’ve only seen Frozen and Despicable Me 2 out of this list, but it seems to me like a pretty weak field this year.

Animated ShortFeral, Get a Horse, Mr Hublot, Possessions, Room on the Broom
Comments: No idea, so I went with the best title.

Documentary FeatureThe Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet From Stardom
Comments: I intend to see some of these eventually, but for now I’m going with the one that’s getting a lot of hype.

Documentary ShortCaveDigger, Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls, The Lady in Number Six: Music Saved My Life, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Comments: No idea, but the ones with the really long names annoy me.

Foreign Language FilmThe Broken Circle Breakdown, The Great Beauty, The Hunt, The Missing Picture, Omar
Comments: Haven’t seen any of these yet, but The Huntwith the awesome Mads Mikkelsen, is apparently extremely good.

Live Action ShortAquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything), Helium, Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?), The Voorman Problem
Comments: Why do short films have to have such bloody long names?

CinematographyThe Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
Comments: I expect Gravity to sweep most of the minor awards it’s nominated for, though the cinematography in both The Grandmaster and Nebraska were excellent.

Costume DesignAmerican Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years a Slave
Comments: The Great Gatsby was considered a relative disappointment overall, but its glitzy costumes should get some consolation.

Makeup and HairstylingDallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger
Comments: Considering the other nominees, I’d say this one’s a lock.

Original ScoreThe Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr Banks
Comments: I’d like to say Gravity or Her, but considering how important the music was in Saving Mr Banks (which I watched last night), I think it’ll take home the gong.

Original SongHappy (Despicable Me 2), Let It Go (Frozen), The Moon Song (Her), Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Comments: I think Let It Go is the best song of the lot, but the U2 factor and the Mandela factor will make Ordinary Love hard to beat.

Production DesignAmerican Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years a Slave
Comments: A bit of a stab in the dark here, but as American Hustle isn’t getting a whole lotta love I think it has to take home something, though having said that, the production design was pretty good.

EditingAmerican Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave
Comments: Hard one to pick, but let’s face it, the editing in Gravity was amazing. Captain Phillips could be a dark horse.

Sound Editing: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor
Comments: Again I’m going with the brilliant Gravity with Captain Phillips being the dark horse.

Sound MixingCaptain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor
Comments: Ditto as per above.

I’ll be checking back to see how many I get right on Oscar night!