My 2011 Oscar Predictions: Who Should Win and Who Will


Well, the nominations for the 2011 Academy Awards are finally out, and as usual, there were few surprises.  Overall, I think 2011 was a pretty solid year for cinema, with some standout films, unique films, classic films and groundbreaking films.  Of course, there were some duds too, but apart from the massive overkill of pointless 3D films, I’d say it was a good year for cinemagoers.

As per the last couple of years, it’s time for me to predict the winners!  Here goes.

To read on click on ‘more…’

It's a tough one to pick this year but I'm going with The Social Network to take out the top prize

Best Picture: 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone.

Who Will Win: The Social Network — when this film was first announced, it seemed like an unlikely Oscar candidate, but ever since it was released, critics haven’t been able to stop raving about this dramatic classic, a memorable film about one of the biggest phenomena of this generation.

Dark Horse: The King’s Speech — critics and voters love these types of films.  I thought it was a top 10 film, but it’s not the best film of 2010.  That recent Nazi smear campaign might hurt its chances though.

Who Should Win: Inception — I’m just happy it was nominated because films like Inception don’t usually get a smell at Best Picture, but I still think it was the best film I saw in 2010 — intelligent, exciting and memorable — Inception ticks all the boxes.

Thoughts: Very solid lineup, but again, I hate this 10 nominees business.  There’s usually only 2 or 3 films in the running anyway, so why include films that are very good but not really Best Picture worthy?

Hard to imagine Firth not winning this year

Best Actor: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King’s Speech), James Franco (127 Hours).

Who Will Win: Colin Firth — the award has his name written all over it.  Bridges won last year, Franco and Eisenberg are too young, and Bardem’s film is too obscure.

Who Should Win: Colin Firth — his performance was a deserving one, let’s put it that way.

Portman should be rewarded for her hard work in The Black Swan

Best Actress: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).

Who Will Win: Natalie Portman — it’s all about Natalie this year, and it’s hard to see her not winning one before giving birth.

Dark Horse: Michelle Williams — she spent years on Blue Valentine and the performances are what kept it afloat and made critics sing its praises.  Very very slim chance though because of all the buzz surrounding Portman’s performance.

Who Should Win: Natalie Portman — she was not only believable as a ballerina, she was believable as a paranoid woman who thinks she might be losing her mind.  Without her I don’t think Black Swan would be a Best Picture nominee.

I expect The Fighter to take out the Supporting Actor/Actress categories

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter), John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech).

Who Will Win: Christian Bale — I absolutely loved him in The Fighter and think it’s about time one of the best actors of this generation won an Oscar.

Who Should Win: Ditto.

Thoughts: No real dark horse, but this is a fantastic field.  Renner was explosive in The Town, and Rush was just as good as Firth in The King’s Speech (but he’s already got one).  Whoever wins will be a deserving winner.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom).

Who Will Win: Melissa Leo

Dark Horse: Hailee Steinfeld (really should be a Best Actress nominee)

Who Should Win: Jacki Weaver (and no, this is not just an Aussie vote — she was truly spectacular in Animal Kingdom).

David Fincher for Best Director

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Coen Brothers (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), David O’Russell (The Fighter).

Who Will Win: David Fincher

Dark Horse: Tom Hooper

Who Should Win: David Fincher — whoever can make a movie about Facebook a great classic deserves my vote.

Thoughts: Hooper has a chance the Best Director and Best Picture awards usually go hand in hand, so if they are leaning towards The King’s Speech, Hooper should win it.  I’m just appalled Christopher Nolan didn’t get a nomination for Inception.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone (no one really cares who the writers are, do they?)

Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)

Who Should Win: Aaron Sorkin

Best Original Screenplay: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech

Who Will Win: David Seidler (The King’s Speech) — not a bad choice this film pretty much all dialogue and he managed to keep in compelling.

Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Inception) — come on.

Toy Story 3 is a 100% lock for the Best Animated Feature

Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, Toy Story 3.

Who Will Win: Toy Story 3

Who Should Win: Toy Story 3

Thoughts: A n brainer when your Best Animated Feature nominee is also the only Best Picture nominee.

Best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law.

Who Will Win: Biutiful

Who Will Win: I have no idea

Thoughts: This is always the hardest category to predict because foreign films get so little press until they actually win the award.  Hopefully there will be another surprise hit since some of these foreign films are truly fantastic.

Cinematography: Black Swan, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit

Who Will Win: Black Swan

Dark Horse: The King’s Speech

Who Should Win: Inception

Thoughts: Very difficult one to predict as all were excellent.  I’m going with Black Swan because the cinematography was so beautiful and integral to the film, but I loved the amazing cinematography in Inception.  However, this is one where the voters might jump on the bandwagon for The King’s Speech.

I think The King's Speech will win its fair share of the minor awards

Custume Design: Alice in Wonderland, I Am Love, The King’s Speech, The Tempest, True Grit

Who Will Win: The King’s Speech

Dark Horse: The Tempest

Who Should Win: Alice in Wonderland

Thoughts: I can’t see Alice in Wonderland winning but I do recall it had some fantastic costumes.  The Tempest had some crazy outfits, so I give that an outside chance.  But chances are voters will most appreciate the authentic royal clothing in The King’s Speech.

Editing: Black Swan, The Fighter, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network

Who Will Win: The Social Network

Who Should Win: The Social Network

Thoughts: Is it just me or do they just pick a handful of the top films every year for this category?

Make Up: Barney’s Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman

Who Will Win: Barney’s Version

Who Should Win: Anyone but The Wolfman

Thoughts: None of the make up nominees really stood out for me this year.  Barney’s Version had some good ageing make up but I couldn’t really tell what The Way Back did that was so wonderful.  All I know is that the make up in The Wolfman was horrendous, and I stand by that.

Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathy Hallows Part I, Inception, The King’s Speech, True Grit

Who Will Win: The King’s Speech

Who Should Win: Inception

I am hoping that Inception will win at least some of the technical awards

Sound Editing: Inception, Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy, True Grit, Unstoppable

Who Will Win: Inception

Dark Horse: True Grit

Who Should Win: Inception

Sound Mixing: Inception, The King’s Speech, Salt, The Social Network, True Grit

Who Will Win: Inception

Dark Horse: The Social Network/The King’s Speech

Who Should Win: Inception

Visual Effects: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2

Who Will Win: Inception

Who Should Win: Inception

Thoughts: Shouldn’t even be close.

Music (Original Score): How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network

Who Will Win: The King’s Speech

Dark Horse: The Social Network

Who Should Win: The Social Network

Music (Original Song): Coming Home (Country Strong), I See the Light (Tangled), If I Rise (127 Hours), We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)

Who Will Win: We Belong Together

Dark Horse: I See the Light

Who Should Win: We Belong Together

Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Gasland, Inside Job, Restrepo, Waste Land

Who Will Win: Waste Land

Thoughts: Yours guess is as good as mine.

Documentary Short: Killing in the Name, Poster Girl, Strangers No More, Sun Come Up, The Warriors of Qiugang

Who Will Win: Strangers No More

Thoughts: No idea.

Short Film (Animated): Day & Night, The Gruffalo, Let’s Pollute, The Lost Thing, Madagascar a Journey Diary

Who Will Win: The Gruffalo

Thoughts: Wild guess

Short Film (Live Action): The Confession, The Crush, God of Love, Na Wewe, Wish 143

Who Will Win: The Confession

Thoughts: Wilder guess

10 thoughts on “My 2011 Oscar Predictions: Who Should Win and Who Will”

  1. Hey, glad to hear your prediction. We’re going to end up having pretty much the same bill. I haven’t decided yet whether to choose Social Network or Kings Speech for BP, but it will certainly be down to those two.
    As for Inception’s Visual Effects not being close, well, it SHOULDNT be close, but my fear is that they choose yet another CGI showcase to win rather than true visual effects innovation.

  2. appreciate the predictions. im starting to be of the opinion that the kings speech will win best pic while best director goes to fincher. i feel the same about other categories where we will see a big split between the kings speech and social network, adding a “showdown” element to the telecast in the hopes for more ratings!

    1. It certainly appears The King’s Speech is gathering momentum over The Social Network at the moment. Nothing against The King’s Speech but whether subjectively or objectively I felt it was the better film, more important and memorable.

  3. It looks like Social Network will win best picture however the oscar should not be given because of popularity or peoples love of face book. Inception and the Kings Speech are better movies by far. I want Inception to win. If the Kings Speech wins I won’t be upset.

    1. It actually looks like The King’s Speech might be the favourite now, but unlike you I preferred The Social Network. Nevertheless, I’m with you on that Inception should win — but it won’t…

  4. I’m a makeup fan myself – read many articles on the makeup for Barney’s Version, Wolfman, and The Way Back. Hands down to Barney’s Version – all prosthetic work done on the actors and NO ONE knew all the makeup was done that way. AMAZING! I thought Paul Giamatti had gained weight for that part …. stunningly beautiful work.

  5. I agree entirely that social network will win best picture. Not only was it, well, the best picture but it also holds a lot of relevance in this day and age.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *